The latest Alabama Senate race poll shows Republican Roy Moore with a 3-point lead over Democratic challenger Doug Jones.
That figure is close to an average of polling dating back to early September, months before a bombshell Washington Post report alleging Moore, the former Alabama Chief Justice, had sexual contact with teenagers in the1970s.
The Real Clear Politics polling compilation shows Moore leading Jones by an average of 2.6 percentage points - 48.2 percent for Moore, 45.6 for Jones. For polls taken in November, Moore has an average lead of 1.5 percentage points, within the average margin of error.
The November polls, which include Fox News, Emerson, CBS News/YouGov and Washington Post, have Moore at 47.7 percent to Jones' 46.2 percent.
The figures reflect a stark turnaround for Moore, who lead Jones by as much as 22 points in an Emerson poll taken in September. After the Washington Post report, the match up became a virtual tie and subsequent polls show a back-and-forth race with numbers ranging from a 6-point lead for Moore in a CBS News/You Gov poll taken Nov. 28-Dec. 1 to a 3-point lead for Jones in a Nov. 27-30 poll conducted by the Washington Post.
Even if Moore wins, he will "vastly underperform" other Alabama Republicans, according to analysts at FiveThirtyEight.com.
"Alabama has been an extremely red state since the demise of the Solid South. Moreover, it's been consistently red; unlike states such as West Virginia, where Democrats are sometimes viable in races for local office and for Congress, Alabama has been voting Republican for pretty much everything," analyst Nate Silver wrote.
The average Republican margin of victory for recent elections in the state is 30 points, even higher - 44 points - for Alabama GOP Senate candidates, fivethirtyeight.com reported....Read more