Washington hasn’t had a truly rainy weekend since at least mid-March. The rainiest days have tended to coincide with the workweek this spring. So I suppose we’re overdue for a gray, wet weekend.
Fortunately, the worst looks like it’s going to hold off until at least Saturday evening, after the official March for Science comes to an end. If you’re going to be milling about Saturday night or Sunday, we recommend an umbrella.
Great news, scientists! Looks like the heavy rain won’t start until at least Saturday evening. Honestly, looking at the forecast models today, I’d even hazard it will stay 90 percent dry through midnight. Spotty showers after noon look like the most likely scenario.
After midnight, the skies could really open up, and it looks like that will continue through Sunday. This is the biggest change since yesterday’s forecast. The European model shifted this wave of low pressure a little bit to the north, which puts D.C. more squarely in its heavy rain. If that model is correct, we’ll have pretty consistent, moderately heavy pretty much all day Sunday.
It also looks like Monday could be pretty soggy, but I’m less confident in that forecast. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see that change in the next 24 hours.
Here’s the good news for the science march, illustrated. The high-resolution version of the NAM only generates less than 0.2 inches for much of the D.C. metro area through 2 a.m. Sunday.
If we look at the whole weekend, the NAM and the Global Forecast System are definitely on the lighter side of the forecast, with just a couple tenths of an inch around the Beltway, with rainfall totals increasing to the south.
The European, however, dumps a boatload of rain — over 1 ½ inches — on the immediate metro area through early Monday morning. This doesn’t even include what’s being predicted for Monday itself, which, like I said, I am pretty uncertain about.
The next runs will come out early Friday afternoon, and if there’s a shift, we will update this post.